CFL plays: Week 5

[YourAllAmerican]

Toronto at Montreal (-5.5 1H)

Toronto has been a surprsise so far this season, but, as much as they've been playing better, they've also caught more than a couple of breaks. I look for thing to come back more toward center tonight, and Montreal on offense is much, much better than the Argos.

I wouldn't be against a full-game bet at -10, but I like a first-half play a little more, as I have doubts that Cleo Lemon will be comfortable at game-start in Montreal but I know Calvillo will be.

Friday's BC/Edmonton game looks to be absolutely the right spot for an Over based on regression-to-the-mean theory (both teams are well below the rest of the league in OU margin), but those two teams are really in positions of uncertainty, so it'd be hard to play that angle.

It's possible I may back off a bit this week and stick just to the one play. I'm 3-4 over the last two weeks, which isn't terrible, but I've felt like I've been lucky to come away with one or two of those wins. Taking a brief step back to re-examine stuff might not be a bad idea.

 

[everyman]

great call...

 

[YourAllAmerican]

Toronto's going to have to do something about their offensive line. Lemon still needs a second longer than experienced CFL quarterbacks, but instead he's under pressure almost every passing play it seems.

 

[everyman]

I agree. That said, I'm quite imoressed with Lemon. He shows poise, toughness and sure throws effortlessly.I really like him. And Boyd, while he was knocked around yesterday, is one of the best new backs I've seen in some time. I'll wager that if he stays healthy he will be NFL bound.
But as we thought Montreal is a major step up. Very precise.

 

[YourAllAmerican]

Worth consideration: BC at Edmonton, O 53

I'm not going to play it myself, but I think the Over is worth a pretty long look here. If this were a stock pick, I'd call it a "technical analysis candidate." BC is far below the rest of the CFL pack in average OU margin so far this season, and Edmonton also is about 4.5 points lower than the group. The total has fallen a couple of points from its open, so people are betting the Under (and understandably so), but if you put much stock in regression to the mean, this total should really be looked at.

Chart here: (may not work on every single browser, but should be fine in almost all)

http://cleanuphitter.com/cfl/stats/chart_ou_margins.php

 

[YourAllAmerican]

Winnipeg at Calgary (-2 2H)

Burris is playing methodically solid while Jyles is having the kind of below-par play we so often see from backup quarterbacks making their second start. I like the chances of the Stamps pulling away even more after the half.